At the bottom of this page are IndieWire Deputy TV Editor Ben Travers’ Emmy predictions for Best Drama Series. This article will be updated throughout the season, along with all our predictions, so make sure to keep checking IndieWire for the latest news from the 2021 race. Voting for the 2021 Emmys nominations was held from June 17 through June 28 (with polls closing at 10 p.m. PT). Emmy nominations were announced Tuesday, July 13. The Creative Arts Emmy Awards will be given out in September, at a date (or dates) to be announced. The 73rd Annual Primetime Emmy Awards will take place Sunday, September 19. CBS is broadcasting the ceremony.
The State of the Race
Last year at this time, we were discussing a three-way race between the expected winner, a series with a boatload of nominations, and “The Mandalorian.” Well, here we are again, caught in a similar conversation, even if everything else about the Best Drama Series competition has shifted. Gone is the 2020 favorite (and eventual champion) “Succession”; so too goes “Ozark” and its sinking ship filled with 18 nominations (but only one win). “The Mandalorian” remains, and it’s still widely perceived as the second fiddle; likely to win at the Creative Arts ceremony, but fall short of the Series prize.
Unlikely but not inconceivable contenders include “Lovecraft Country” and “Bridgerton.” The Netflix period drama from Shondaland managed 12 nominations in its debut season, across a wide swath of categories (including Production Design, Cinematography, Costumes, and Directing), but it only landed one acting nomination, for Regé-Jean Page. Given the competition, “Bridgerton” will need a formidable number of voters from that massive branch if it hopes to compete for Best Drama — a branch “Lovecraft Country” could lean on. With 18 nominations (including five acting nods and a slot in the Writing category), HBO’s supernatural drama could have carried serious upset potential for Emmy night’s final prize… except for its cancellation putting a damper on voters’ enthusiasm. Nomination voting closed before HBO announced its decision, and with revival odds looking slim, there’s less motivation for voters to show their support on the ballot. That leaves “The Handmaid’s Tale,” “The Mandalorian,” and “The Crown,” all of which raked in nominations across the board, all of which have a good track record with the Academy, and all of which have the potential to take home the Emmy this year. “The Handmaid’s Tale” is the only one to win this category so far, and Hulu’s dystopian story continues to be an Emmy favorite; it has 75 nominations to date and 15 wins, including a Best Drama Series trophy in 2017. But since then, it hasn’t been able to snag the top prize, netting three wins for Seasons 2 and 3 alike. Season 4 could push it back to glory, but we have yet to see the same fervor that sparked Season 1’s win. So why not “The Mandalorian?” Most would point to the same factors that kept the series out of the winner’s circle last year, even after an impressive showing at the Creative Arts Awards: It lacks support from actors, critics are ho-hum, and it’s missing the “it” factor of many Best Drama champions. “The Mandalorian” looks great, but are voters eager to give the Best Drama Series title to a show with storytelling amounting to a big-budget, live-action, Saturday morning cartoon? Probably not, which is good news for “The Crown,” and great news for Netflix. Long predicted to control this year’s Emmy conversation, Peter Morgan’s beloved series seems to have timing on its side (with The Royal Family under ever-mounting cultural scrutiny and last year’s winner forced to skip this year’s Emmys due to production delays) and everyone in its corner. After three straight years with 13 nominations, “The Crown” shot up to 24 nominations in 2021, tied with “The Mandalorian” for the most overall — yet with plenty of support from actors, too. (There are nine acting nominees, including Claire Foy for what’s barely a cameo.) Even if “The Mandalorian” dominates the craft voters’ ballots, some will be swayed by the “The Crown” and actors are likely to heavily favor the Netflix entry. Other branches will, as well — and, largely by the hands of fate — Netflix should finally win its first Emmy for Best Drama Series.
Power Rankings: Will Win: “The Crown” Could Win: “The Mandalorian” Should Win: “The Boys” Sign Up: Stay on top of the latest breaking film and TV news! Sign up for our Email Newsletters here.
